The Turkey-Flat Strong Motion Blind Prediction by the Source Modelling

    I. Oprsal, J. Zahradnik
    Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Prague, Czech Republic
    E-mail: io_at_karel.troja.mff.cuni.cz  ,  jiri.zahradnik_at_mff.cuni.cz
    http://geo.mff.cuni.cz

In Proceedings of Third International Symposium on the ‘Effects of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion’, Grenoble, France, 30 August – 1 September 2006,  Laboatoire Central des Ponts et Chausees, Paris, vol. 2, Paper No 075, 10pp.

Introduction
International experiment of strong motion prediction at the Turkey Flat test site near Parkfield, California (M6, Sep. 28, 2004 earthquake) was a two-phase experiment, where local site-specific structural data and two strong motion records were released to assist in the ground motion simulation. In our approach, record R1 (rock site) was firstly fit by finite-extent source modelling. Afterwards, using individual 1D crustal models and the same source model, complete numerical simulation was accomplished for sites R2, V1, V2, D1, D2, D3 in the 0 to 40 Hz band, comprising required acceleration time histories, Fourier spectral ratios, peak ground motion values and response spectra. In the second phase of the experiment the D3 (downhole) record was released to possibly modify the prediction. Since, however, we found the previous blind simulation of the D3 record (that from the 1st phase) acceptable up to 10 Hz, our 2nd phase prediction results remained unchanged compared to the 1st phase. This was the only technique among those applied by the participants in the present blind prediction experiment which focused on the finite-extent source effect.
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POSTER:

The Turkey-Flat strong motion "blind“ prediction experiment

I. Oprsal, J. Zahradnik
    Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Prague, Czech Republic
    E-mail: io_at_karel.troja.mff.cuni.cz  ,  jiri.zahradnik_at_mff.cuni.cz
    http://geo.mff.cuni.cz

Third International Symposium on the Effects of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion
Grenoble, France, 30 August - 1 September 2006

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