PRAGUE CENTRE OF MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS, METEOROLOGY, AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
(MAGMA)


Seismic hazard assessment for a characteristic earthquake scenario: Integrating probabilistic and deterministic approaches

Antonio Emolo, Universita' degli Studi "Federico II", Napoli, Italy
Prague, Mar 18, 2005

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is generally performed through the classical Cornell approach, using uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. Earthquake effects are generally accounted using empirical attenuation relationships. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with a given active fault. The approach integrates the PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique to be used for predicting peak and spectral ground motion parameters. The proposed method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the conditional exceeding probability for the chosen ground motion parameter. The latter is obtained from the statistical analysis of synthetic waveform database produced by a large number of possible rupture histories occurring on the characteristic earthquake fault. It is presented an application for the hazard evaluation in the Umbria and Marche regions (Central Italy), as produced by a fault corresponding to the September 26, 1997, Colfiorito earthquake, MW=6.0.


Last edited Apr 4, 2005